LAUREL RIDGE
Northwestern Pennsylvania
The Laurel Ridge package consists of 5,032±
acres of highly productive timberland located in
a largely urbanized region of Clearfield County,
PA. Complementing the timber and high site
index soils are strong residential and recre-
ational development potential providing addi-
tional investment flexibility. $11,750,000
GLATFELTER TIMBERLANDS
Southeastern Pennsylvania
This 13,804± acre package consists of 59
individual tracts which collectively offer a
broad array of amenities and investment drivers
including a diverse and appreciating timber
resource, development potential, multiple tax
lots, and recreational lease income in excess
of $150,000 a year. With a few exceptions, the
land is owned 100% in fee, including all natural
gas, mineral, and oil rights. $32,250,000
David W. King • 814-781-1637
dking@landvest.com
www.landvest.com
106 N. MICHAEL STREET • SUITE 3 • ST. MARYS, PA 15857
HEADQUARTERS: TEN POST OFFICE SQUARE • BOSTON, MA 02109
REGIONAL OFFICES: MA • ME • NH • NY • VT • PA • GA
Yet, other analysts see a different picture. “The shadow
market is overblown, except
for a few, select markets like
Phoenix, where it’s very competitive between apartments
and houses,” says Stephen
Swett, senior vice president and
co-head of REIT research at
Keefe, Bruyette and Woods.
“I do not believe the shadow
market is truly offering competition to multifamily.”
Anderson calls the shadow
pipeline the fly in the ointment.
“We don’t know how it will im-
housing, fed by an increase in
single-parent households and
immigration.
Pricing Power Kaput
Concerns about the shadow
market and occupancy growth,
however, are overshadowed by
concerns about lack of rental rate
growth. After a modest increase
of approximately 3. 7 percent for
2008, rental growth will flatten
out or decline slightly in 2009,
analysts universally forecast.
There’s no single culprit causing the slide, Petrik says, citing
Multifamily REITs are simply trying to
ride through 2009. Blast forward to
2010. Deliveries will run down to as low
a level as we’ve seen, job growth will be
positive and demand will improve.
pact occupancy in multifamily
or how much of a competitive
pressure it will be,” he says.
With three-bedroom apartments delivering 10 percent to
12 percent of the multifamily
supply, he suggests that the
shadow pipeline impact will be
limited. “The family looking to
rent a home is a different market than the typical apartment
renter,” he says.
The shadow pipeline aside,
analysts believe that the slumping single-family housing market bodes well for multifamily—
eventually. “Looking at the
bigger picture beyond the next
12 months, the decline in home
ownership rates suggests that
multifamily occupancy will go
up,” Petrik says.
Over the next five years,
he forecasts a strong increase
in demand for multifamily
a combination of the weak
economy, job losses and longer
length of stay for renters.
The greatest impact will be
felt after the first quarter of this
year as the sector enters the
prime leasing season, Salinsky
says. “First quarter of 2009 will
seem okay, and then in the second quarter we’ll see the nose-dive,” he says. “Occupancy levels
may hold up, but landlords will
have no pricing power.”
However, he adds, “rental
rate growth will be a market-by-market phenomenon. We’ll
see a decline of 3 percent to 4
percent in some markets and
up the same amount in others.”
Increases will come in those
markets that sustain job growth,
such as the Raleigh-Durham
area of North Carolina and San
Francisco, where rents could rise
1 percent to 3 percent, he notes.
